The Fiscal Effect of Stimulus: Evidence from “Cash for Clunkers”

by Pete Geddes

If I ever get a tatoo, it will read: "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” (F.A. Hayek)

From a new paper by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi:

We examine the ability of the government to increase consumption by evaluating the impact of the 2009 “Cash for Clunkers” program on short and medium run auto purchases. Our empirical strategy exploits variation across U.S. cities in ex-ante exposure to the program as measured by the number of “clunkers” in the city as of the summer of 2008. We find that the program induced the purchase of an additional 360,000 cars in July and August of 2009. However, almost all of the additional purchases under the program were pulled forward from the very near future; the effect of the program on auto purchases is almost completely reversed by as early as March 2010 – only seven months after the program ended. The effect of the program on auto purchases was significantly more short-lived than previously suggested. We also find no evidence of an effect on employment, house prices, or household default rates in cities with higher exposure to the program.